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| Between the Mountains - Updates from the South Caucasus |
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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus
October/November 2025 |
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Dear Friends of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, |
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Finding Direction at Crossroads
Armenians, Georgians and Azerbaijanis regularly note that their countries might have more differences than similarities: their political systems diverge, their histories pull in different directions, and their foreign-policy preferences rarely overlap. For many, the idea of a common "South Caucasian" regional identity is hardy more than an external construct.
Yet attempts to knit the neighbourhood more closely together have not faded. Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative — announced two years ago and often dismissed as too aspirational — is the most pronounced effort at the moment. At our conference in Yerevan this week carrying the same title, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan offered new details that show how the government intends to push the project beyond the conceptual stage. That, and the visible commitment from many stakeholders, is grounds for a measure of guarded optimism.
Strikingly, a lawmaker from the Civil Contract party went further, arguing on the podium that such new connectivity could, over time, lay the foundations for something resembling a shared regional identity. Although no Azerbaijani speakers attended this time, a broad range of other international stakeholders was actively involved — and the conversation about what the South Caucasus could become is, for once, inching in a constructive forward-looking direction
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| Jakob Wöllenstein |
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Discussing Armenia’s Move Toward Universal Income Declaration |
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At KAS Armenia, we recently brought together policymakers, experts, and journalists for a discussion on the upcoming introduction of universal income declaration for individuals. In partnership with the State Revenue Committee and the Economic Journalists’ Club, the event provided an open forum to explore the reform’s practical implications and its role in promoting transparency and good governance.
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What happened in the South Caucasus? |
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Armenia-Turkey border will open to third countries in January Former Turkish MP Garo Paylan announced that the Armenia–Turkey border is expected to open to citizens of third countries early next year, marking a major step in the long-stalled normalization process. Paylan emphasized Ankara’s current political will to move forward. He credited recent regional agreements and Western encouragement as key to sustaining momentum. Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that Yerevan is ready to enable transit of goods between Turkey and Azerbaijan through Armenian territory.
Armenia receives Visa Liberalization Plan
Armenia has been handed a detailed EU roadmap outlining the reforms required for visa-free travel to the Schengen area, marking a new phase in Yerevan’s integration with Europe. The plan, delivered by senior EU official Johannes Luchner to Interior Minister Arpine Sargsyan, sets benchmarks in border management, document security, and rule of law. Luchner emphasized that progress will depend on the pace and quality of Armenia’s reforms. Among key priorities are the rollout of biometric passports and stronger anti-corruption measures.
Opposition Mayors facing jail time
A series of high-profile arrests and court rulings involving opposition mayors has stirred political debate in Armenia. Masis mayor Davit Hambardzumian was sentenced to more than six years in prison for allegedly assaulting participants during the 2018 protests that brought Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to power — charges he denies and his Republican Party calls politically motivated. Additionally, in Gyumri, Communist Party–backed mayor Vartan Ghukasian was detained on bribery charges. While authorities frame the cases as part of anti-corruption and rule-of-law efforts, opposition figures view them as signs of growing pressure on local elected opponents. |
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EU enlargement report - Georgia a "candidate in name only"
Georgia’s strained ties with Brussels have deepened after the European Commission’s latest enlargement report accused the ruling Georgian Dream government of “serious democratic backsliding” and described the country as a “candidate in name only.” EU Ambassador Pawel Herczynski said Georgia is now farther from membership than a year ago, while officials in Brussels confirmed Georgian Dream was excluded from the upcoming Enlargement Forum. In response, Speaker Shalva Papuashvili launched a combative attack on the EU, accusing it of bias and interference underscoring the government’s growing estrangement from Europe.
GD opens lawsuit to ban opposition - new investigations against leaders
Major opposition parties in Georgia are facing simultaneous legal and criminal pressure as the government escalates its campaign against rivals. The Prosecutor’s Office has filed sweeping charges against eight leading opposition figures, accusing them of “sabotage” and “aiding foreign powers.” At the same time, the ruling Georgian Dream has asked the Constitutional Court to outlaw the three out of four main opposition blocks, citing alleged threats to state sovereignty. Opposition leaders have called the cases a politically motivated attempt to dismantle pluralism,
Controversies around Arab Investment in Eagle Hills Construction
The Georgian government’s partnership with UAE-based developer Eagle Hills has sparked sharp debate over transparency and national interests. While officials hail the $6.5 billion project as the largest foreign investment in Georgia’s history, opposition parties have condemned the decision to classify the contract as a “commercial secret,” arguing that millions of square meters of public land are being transferred without oversight. GD insist the deal safeguards state interests and brings no financial risk to the government, with Georgia holding a 33 percent stake. Critics, however, accuse the ruling party of concealing key details and warn that the opaque arrangement mirrors controversial Eagle Hills ventures elsewhere. |
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Coup and treason allegations against former 'gray cardinal'
Azerbaijan’s former presidential aide Ramiz Mehdiyev, long known as the country’s “gray cardinal,” has been charged with high treason, plotting to seize state power, and money laundering. Pro-government media allege that the 87-year-old sought Russian backing for a coup and even planned to assassinate President Ilham Aliyev, before Moscow reportedly alerted Baku to the plot. The claims — including an alleged “coup letter” — remain unverified and have been met with skepticism from independent observers. Mehdiyev, who led the Presidential Administration for nearly 25 years before his 2019 dismissal, is under house arrest as authorities expand investigations into his associates.
Thaw in Russian-Azerbaijan relations - Energy talks
Signs of renewed warmth between Moscow and Baku have emerged as energy cooperation resumes after months of strained ties. In late October, Gazprom chief Aleksei Miller and SOCAR president Rovshan Najaf met in Saint Petersburg to discuss expanding joint projects, including potential gas transit routes through Azerbaijan to Iran. The talks suggest both sides are seeking to rebuild practical ties. Although Azerbaijan’s STAR refinery in Turkey has reportedly reduced purchases of Russian oil to avoid secondary sanctions, ongoing dialogue between SOCAR and Gazprom indicates a cautious but notable thaw in relations.
Azerbaijan ends trade restrictions with Armenia
Trade has resumed between Armenia and Azerbaijan for the first time in more than thirty years, following Baku’s decision to lift all restrictions on the exchange and transit of goods. President Ilham Aliyev described the move as proof that peace with Armenia is “not only on paper but in practice.” The change has already allowed shipments of Russian and Kazakh wheat to pass through Azerbaijani territory to Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan hailed the decision as a milestone for regional connectivity underscoring growing momentum toward normalised relations. |
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This newsletter is a free service of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus 4 Tamar Chovelidze St, Tbilisi
T +995 32 245 91 11
Responsible Florian Binder florian.binder@kas.de |
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| © Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. 2025 |
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