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| Between the Mountains - Updates from the South Caucasus |
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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus
July/August 2025 |
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Dear Friends of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung,
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… and then, all of a sudden, the South Caucasus makes headlines of world politics! At a White House summit as heavy on ceremony as on calculation, Donald Trump hosted Armenia’s Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev to sign a deal over the so-called “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”. This American-Armenian joint venture is to create infrastructure in Armenia’s Syunik region – not only linking Azerbaijan to its exclave and Turkey. The scheme, which could help Baku and Yerevan overcome a deadlock in the search for a peace agreement, promises to redraw the big trade routes between Europe and Asia. At the same time, the deal could tilt the regional power balance against Russia and Iran and empower Western players and Turkey. Many observers have rushed to label the meeting “historic”.
Yet beneath the floodlights of grand diplomacy, quieter but no less telling domestic developments are unfolding in the three countries “between the mountains”. As always, we bring the details—and wish you stimulating reading.
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| Jakob Wöllenstein |
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Inspiring Change: Leadership Academy 2025
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From July 25–27, the peaceful setting of Aghveran became a hub of ideas, dialogue, and teamwork as young leaders from across Armenia came together for the Leadership Academy Armenia. Over three dynamic days, participants explored the foundations of leadership, sharpened their public speaking and negotiation skills, and learned how to build coalitions and work across differences. Through interactive sessions, challenging games, and inspiring exchanges with experts from Armenia and the Netherlands, they gained not only knowledge but also confidence, motivation, and a network of like-minded peers. The Academy was more than a training – it was a spark for the next generation to shape Armenia’s future.
A special thanks to our partners Eduard Frey Foundation and Max van der Stoel Foundation! |
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What happened in the South Caucasus? |
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US–Armenia Deal Secures Development of Syunik Transit Route Following a trilateral meeting in Washington on August 9 aimed at advancing peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Yerevan and Washington signed a separate agreement granting the United States long-term, exclusive development rights for a transport corridor through Armenia’s Syunik province. Branded the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), the link will remain under Armenian jurisdiction while being subleased to a US-led consortium to construct and operate road, rail, and related energy and communications infrastructure along the 43-kilometre stretch, connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave without extraterritorial status.
Pashinyan remains most trusted politician with 13% approval A July 2025 poll shows Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan retaining his position as Armenia’s most trusted political figure, though his approval has fallen to 13%, down from 16% a year earlier. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan follows with 5%, and former President Robert Kocharyan with 4%, while 61% of respondents said they do not trust any politician. Support for Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party dropped to 17%, with the opposition Armenia Alliance rising from 2% to 4%. The survey also found high public trust in the Armed Forces (72%) and the Armenian Apostolic Church (58%), but declining confidence in state institutions, and identified security, economic challenges, and political instability as the country’s top concerns.
Jailed Russian-Armenian Oligarch confirmed to lead new political movement From a detention cell in Yerevan, billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, whose pre-trail detention was extendet by two months in mid-August, has declared plans to head a new political force - "Our Way". His nephew, Narek Karapetyan, said the group will follow the tycoon’s policy vision and promote a technocratic approach grounded in his business career. The move comes amid Karapetyan’s ongoing legal fight against the government’s attempt to seize his Electric Networks of Armenia utility and charges he rejects. While former president Robert Kocharyan has hailed the initiative’s potential, analysts note it lacks a registered party, clear programme, or visible public support. Additionally, Karapetyan has already ruled out joining already established opposition coalitions. |
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Mzia Amaglobeli sentenced to two years imprisonment – charges reclassified After more than seven months in pre-trial detention, journalist and Batumelebi/Netgazeti co-founder Mzia Amaglobeli was sentenced on 6 August by Batumi City Court to two years in prison, with the original charge of assaulting a police officer reclassified to the lesser offense of “resistance, threat, or violence” against an official. The verdict has drawn condemnation from the EU, 24 diplomatic missions, and global press freedom organizations as politically motivated and disproportionate. Her lawyers plan to appeal, while the European Court of Human Rights is already reviewing the case amid concerns over her rapidly deteriorating eyesight in custody.
Discussions on suspension of visa-free travel intensify – GD escalates rhetoric EU–Georgia tensions over the possible suspension of visa-free travel have deepened after Brussels formally warned Tbilisi to repeal restrictive laws and uphold human rights or risk losing the regime by year’s end. The eight-point EU list follows months of criticism of Georgian Dream’s “foreign agents” and anti-LGBT legislation, prompting PM Irakli Kobakhidze to accuse “European bureaucracy” and the so-called “Global War Party” of using visa policy as political blackmail, likening Brussels to the Soviet Union. Poland has meanwhile signalled it may also reimpose visas for Georgian citizens, citing crime and security concerns. The EU has condemned GD’s “disinformation” and attacks on its ambassador, while civil society warns the government will bear full responsibility if Georgians lose visa-free access.
17th anniversary of 2008 war – Kobakhidze sees UNM, Deepstate responsible On the war’s anniversary, Georgian Dream leaders used the occasion to again blame the 2008 conflict on the UNM government, accusing it of serving foreign interests and acting under the influence of a so-called “deep state.” PM Irakli Kobakhidze and other GD figures cited selective international documents to portray Saakashvili’s leadership as treacherous, while dismissing their own critics. Opposition leader Tina Bokuchava countered that GD was parroting Kremlin propaganda, and Russia’s Maria Zakharova openly welcomed GD’s framing, urging Tbilisi to take steps that align with Moscow’s positions. |
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Azerbaijan & Armenia sign preliminary peace agreement At an August 8 summit in Washington mediated by US President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev initialled the long-negotiated text of a peace treaty aimed at ending decades of hostilities. The agreement commits both sides to recognising each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, closing the OSCE Minsk Process, and refraining from the use of force. While hailed as a breakthrough by Washington and Brussels, significant hurdles remain: Baku insists Yerevan must amend its constitution to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh before the treaty is signed, and questions over implementation and reciprocity continue.
Baku introduces new media restrictions amid journalists’ hunger strike On 14 July, Azerbaijan’s parliament passed tighter media laws requiring outlets to register in the state-run Media Register or face fines up to ₼5,000 ($2,900), alongside new limits on foreign funding and operational rules, which critics say further erode press freedom. The move coincided with jailed Abzas Media director Ulvi Hasanli’s hunger strike over authorities ignoring a court order to transfer him to the Baku Pretrial Detention Centre. Hasanli ended his protest on 12 August after 17 days amid severe health decline, while President Ilham Aliyev celebrated 200 pro-government media figures — an act opponents called a reward for silence.
Trump considering push to include Azerbaijan in Abraham Accords
Washington is in talks with Azerbaijan about joining the Abraham Accords, the US-brokered framework for normalising relations between Israel and Muslim-majority states. Azerbaijan already maintains close trade and security ties with Israel but has so far opted not to join, citing its relationship with Iran, alignment with ally Turkey, and the sensitivities surrounding Gaza and the Palestinian issue. Proponents in the US highlight the potential to connect the India-Middle East-Europe corridor with the Trans-Caspian network, while officials in Baku emphasise the need to weigh strategic interests and regional dynamics before making a decision. |
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Announcement
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Reminder: @kas_southcaucasus
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Interested in what we’re doing in the South Caucasus but don’t speak Georgian or Armenian? We’ve got you covered. With the launch of our new international Instagram channel @kas_southcaucasus, you can now follow our work across Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan more closely than ever. We’ll be sharing regular updates on our activities, news from the region, fascinating facts about the South Caucasus, and insights into our projects. You can also accompany our director on his journey to learn Georgian and Armenian.
Follow us and stay connected with everything happening in this dynamic and diverse region.
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RE-Wind:
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Exploring Youth Policy: Study Visit to Belgium
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As part of the “Youth in Action: Youth Empowerment and Leadership Development in Armenia” (YIA) project, a study visit to the Kingdom of Belgium took place from June 9 to 14, 2025. Organized by us in partnership with the Youth Initiative Center (YIC) NGO, this visit marked a significant step in strengthening Armenia’s youth policy landscape through international collaboration.
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This newsletter is a free service of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus 4 Tamar Chovelidze St, Tbilisi
T +995 32 245 91 11
Responsible Florian Binder florian.binder@kas.de |
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| © Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. 2025 |
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