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Between the Mountains - Updates from the South Caucasus

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus

January/February 2025


Dear Friends of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung,
 

In a need for visions

 

A lack of visions seems to be a global phenomenon at present. Be it the question how to end the war in Ukraine (with the Trump postponing a vision for a solution from 24 hours to 100 days to 6 months; a phone call to Putin is not a vision…), how Germany should or could look like in 2028, or how to lead Georgia out of the current deadlock that is holding the country hostage for months. Visions are important to give people trust and confidence that things can change for better, especially in times of uncertainty. Last year we moderated a process in which three groups of young experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia worked on their visions for the South Caucasus. Fostering people-to-people contract, leading to mutual understanding, was one of the leitmotifs.


Visions need to be visible. And not only. They need to attract attention. Which is increasingly difficult in time of social media that are shaping our attentiveness in a way that we are not receptive to visions anymore. With this in mind, we have amended our social media presence with now two separate Facebook and Instagram pages for Georgia and for Armenia. You will soon find the visions for the South Caucasus there, along with a lot of more information about the activities of KAS in the region.


Stephan Malerius




Contents

Headline: Closing Event - Workshop Program for Leadership Academy Alumni
Spotlight Armenia
Spotlight Georgia
Spotlight Azerbaijan
Upcoming Events




Closing Event: Workshop Program for Leadership Academy Alumni


On January 25, 2025, together with the Regional Studies Center (RSC), we celebrated the successful conclusion of our Training & Development Workshop Program for Leadership Academy Alumni in Yerevan. Over three months and seven intensive sessions, participants explored key political and social issues, gaining valuable insights and skills.

At the closing event, three participants presented their research projects shaped by the workshop experience, sparking meaningful discussions. The highlight was awarding certificates to our graduates, recognizing their dedication and future leadership potential.

We are proud of their achievements and wish them continued success in driving positive change in Armenia!


 

 

What happened in the South Caucasus?
 
Armenia

EU extends border monitoring mission for two additional years
The European Council has approved a two-year extension of the monitoring mission in Armenia, maintaining its current size and mandate. While Armenia sees the mission as essential for border stability, Azerbaijan demands its removal, arguing it undermines regional negotiations and challenges its influence. Yerevan has suggested withdrawing monitors from delimited areas, but Baku remains unsatisfied, viewing their continued presence as Western interference. Meanwhile, Russia has echoed Azerbaijan’s criticism, labeling the mission a NATO-aligned intelligence operation.

Border delimitation efforts enter new stage
As part of ongoing efforts to demarcate their shared border, Armenia and Azerbaijan will begin the long awaited delimitation near their junction with Georgia. While past demarcations used Soviet-era maps, it remains uncertain which references will guide this phase. Experts warn the process could take years and may not address Azerbaijani-held territories in Armenia’s south, leaving Baku with a strategic advantage in future negotiations.

Armenia’s parliament takes symbolic first step toward EU-membership bid
Armenia’s Parliament has passed the first reading of a draft law initiating the country’s EU membership process, backed by 63 MPs, with seven voting against. The bill, based on a citizen-led initiative, still requires further legislative approvals, political negotiations, and ultimately a referendum before any concrete progress toward applying for membership can be made. While Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stressed that this does not guarantee Armenia’s EU accession, the move has already drawn criticism from Moscow, which warns of conflicts with Armenia’s existing commitments to the Eurasian Economic Union.



 
Georgia

Council of Europe’s PACE demands new elections – GD leaves assembly
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) ratified the credentials of Georgia’s delegation but only conditionally, demanding new elections and the release of political prisoners by April. In response, the Georgian Dream (GD) announced its withdrawal from PACE, rejecting the resolution as an attack on Georgia’s sovereignty. While opposition leaders and civil society groups praise the resolution as a necessary step to restore democratic norms, GD insists it will not comply. Meanwhile, the European Parliament adopted a resolution equally calling for new elections in Georgia “within the next few months in an improved electoral environment”.

GD tightens control with repressive laws and  announcing investigations against imagined "spy networks"

GD has escalated its crackdown on civil society and dissent by adopting sweeping legislative changes and launching investigations into alleged foreign-backed "sabotage." GD leaders, emboldened by the Trump administration’s suspension of foreign aid, have intensified attacks on U.S. and EU-funded organizations, accusing them of destabilizing Georgia. The government has introduced harsher penalties for protest-related offenses, criminalizing insults against officials, expanding police powers, and increasing fines and detention periods for demonstrators. Meanwhile, the Prosecutor’s Office has opened an investigation into "hostile activities" by foreign-linked groups, fueling fears of a broader crackdown on opposition voices and independent media.

Majority of Georgians support protest demands as demonstrations enter 80th day
A new public opinion poll by the Institute of Social Studies and Analysis (ISSA) reveals that a majority of Georgians view the country as being in a political crisis, seeing GD as responsible. The survey found that 62% favor new elections, while 76.3% support releasing detained protesters, aligning with the key demands of ongoing demonstrations. Additionally, 82% see the government’s direction as negative, and nearly 55% believe Georgian Dream serves Russian interests rather than pursuing EU integration. Furthermore, 60% of respondents support the protests, 48% consider the government illegitimate, and 67% oppose the decision to suspend Georgia’s strategic partnership with the U.S.



 
Azerbaijan

 

Trial of Former Nagorno-Karabakh Leaders Begins in Baku
After more than a year in pretrial detention, sixteen former officials from Nagorno-Karabakh, including ex-"president" Arayik Harutyunyan as well as de facto prime minister Ruben Vardanyan, face officially terrorism charges in Baku. While Azerbaijan frames the trial as legal accountability, Armenia condemns it as politically motivated. The trial also features testimonies from hundreds of alleged victims, including relatives of those who died in the Nagorno-Karabakh wars.

Azerbaijani Security Forces Conduct Counterterrorism Operation
A large-scale counterterrorism operation in Qusar in northern Azerbaijan targeted a radical group linked to international terrorist networks. Eight suspects were killed, including individuals who detonated explosives to avoid capture, while six others were arrested. Authorities uncovered weapons, explosives, and evidence of planned attacks, pointing to religious extremism as the group’s primary motivation.

Further Strains in Baku-Moscow Relations
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia are escalating as Moscow summoned Azerbaijani Ambassador Rahman Mustafayev over alleged anti-Russian disinformation, particularly regarding the Russian House in Baku. Meanwhile an Azeri TV channel accused the Russian House of espionage. That prompted Rossotrudnichestvo, the agency administering cultural exchange in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to threaten legal action, noting that Russia had won similar cases in Germany regarding accusations against the Russian House in Berlin.




Upcoming events

EU/KAS-REACT Project Inception Workshop, Tbilisi (26.-28.02.2025)
Political Education: Teachers' Training, Shirak (18.-20.02.2025)
Presentation: Peace via Connectivity Study, Meghri (03.03.2025)




FB Georgia
 
FB Armenia





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