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Between the Mountains - Updates from the South Caucasus

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus

November/December 2024


Dear Friends of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung,
 

Aliyev, Lukashenka, Kavelashvili, or: a question of dignity

 

When on 14 December, an illegitimate electoral college voted for Mikheil Kavelashvili to become the next Georgian president, the first to congratulate were Ilham Aliyev and Aleksandr Lukashenka, presidents of Azerbaijan and Belarus. Both are notorious autocrats who for 20 (A.) or 30 years (L.) did not give a damn about the legitimacy of elections. It was the notorious oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili who decided that Kavelashvili should be the next president of Georgia. Kavelashvili is a populistic football player-turned-politician who initiated the first introduction of the Russian inspired Foreign Agent Law in March 2023.

During recent parliamentary election campaign one of the main slogans of Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream was “With dignity to Europe”. Kavelashvili as president is deeply embarrassing, and he shows that Ivanishvili does not give a damn about the dignity of Georgia, and he does not want this country to go to Europe. For Georgian people it is now a question of dignity, not to accept them altogether: the new president, the Georgian Dream government and Ivanishvili.


Stephan Malerius




Contents

Headline Event: Dialogue with Armenian Politicians
Spotlight Armenia
Spotlight Georgia
Spotlight Azerbaijan
Upcoming Events

"Dialogue Programme with Armenian Politicians" 


From 25 to 29 November, members of the Standing Committees on Foreign Relations and on European Integration of the National Assembly of Armenia paid visits to Berlin and Brussels within a dialogue programme. The politicians met with a wide range of interlocutors from German and European institutions, think tanks and politcians and exchanged views on EU-Armenia relations, the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the normalization process between Armenia and Turkey and the situation in the South Caucasus in general.


 

 

What happened in the South Caucasus?
 
Armenia

Limited progress in anti-corruption efforts amid controversies around Yerevan Mayor
Armenia's anti-corruption progress has been evaluated as stagnating amid reports of selective enforcement and high-profile controversies, such as allegations against Yerevan Mayor Tigran Avinyan. Transparency International Armenia criticized the limited scrutiny of ruling party officials and highlighted concerns over conflicts of interest, procurement collusion, and political financing. Avinyan, meanwhile, faces allegations of misuse of public funds, familial business ties benefiting from state programs, and ethical violations, raising questions about the effectiveness of anti-corruption reforms.

Major reshuffling in Armenian Government
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has overseen the resignation of multiple high-ranking officials, including the Interior Minister and heads of judicial and anti-corruption bodies, citing systemic issues rather than individual failures. Controversially, he admitted to personally requesting the resignations. Critics argue the shake-up reflects attempts to deflect blame for unfulfilled reform promises or lay the groundwork for early elections, while Pashinyan maintains the moves aim to strengthen Armenia’s governance.

Armenian businesses aiding Russia in circumventing Western sanctions

According to investigative reporting by Armenian and Russian journalists, Armenia has become a key player in re-exporting Russian gold to markets like the UAE, Hong Kong, and China, helping Moscow bypass Western sanctions. This trade benefits from Armenia's exemption from Russian export duties, with many involved businesses reportedly tied to elites. Despite concerns about secondary sanctions, the practice highlights Armenia’s growing role in facilitating Russia’s sanction evasion strategies.


 
Georgia

Georgian Dream aborts Georgia's EU accession

In reaction to an European parliament resolution calling for the non-recognition of the disputed parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced on November 28 that the Georgian Dream has decided not to pursue EU-integration until 2028. Additionally, GD will also reject any financial aid from Europe. Multiple observers have argued that the decision is in conflict with the Euro-Atlantic integration enshrined in the Georgian constitution.

Weeks of protest amid brutal police crackdown in Georgia

Since the abortion of the EU integration process, Georgians have been staging daily protests for over two weeks. Despite remaining largely peaceful, these demonstrations have been met with escalating violence against the protesters, oposition parties and civil society as a whole. More than 500 people, among them journalists and activisits, have been arrested with hundreds being transferred to emergency care. Videos ciruclating on social media expose the brutal measures employed by authorities to suppress dissent.

Macron calls Ivanishvili

In a phone call with Bidzina Ivanishvili, French President Emmanuel Macron urged inclusive dialogue with opposition parties and civil society to address escalating tensions sparked by protests over alleged election fraud and government repression. Macron condemned violence against peaceful demonstrators and journalists, called for the release of detainees, and expressed regret over Georgia’s deviation from its European integration path. The call highlights growing international concerns about Georgia's political trajectory while also acknowledging the influence of Ivanishvili as the country's informal ruler.



 
Azerbaijan

 

COP29 ends with mixed results
The COP29 summit in Baku concluded with a $300 billion annual climate finance pledge for developing nations, falling far short of the $1.3 trillion demanded. The event was marked by accusations of greenwashing and doubts about Azerbaijan’s preparedness as host, with critics highlighting logistical issues and the incongruity of a petrostate leading global climate talks. Developing nations staged walkouts over perceived inequities, further emphasizing the summit’s shortcomings of bridging the divide between wealthy and vulnerable countries in addressing the climate crisis.

Further crackdowns against journalists and opposition in Azerbaijan

Following the conclusion of COP29, the Azerbaijani Government has intensified its actions against journalists and political opponents, detaining several independent reporters linked to Meydan TV. The crackdown extended to prominent human rights defender Rufat Safarov, opposition figure Azer Gasimli, and activists attending a Human Rights Day event. Meanwhile, the judiciary fined opposition leader Ali Karimli for defamation in a case criticized as politically motivated.

European-Azerbaijani Oil deals expected to benefit Russia

As Azerbaijan strengthens energy ties with the EU, questions arise over its capacity to meet export demands, with analysts suggesting it may re-export Russian gas under a different label. Despite claims that these imports from Russia are for domestic use, Azerbaijan has significantly increased purchases from Gazprom. The Russian-Azerbaijani gas arrangements are therefore argued to have the potential to undermine European efforts to diversify energy sources away from Moscow.





Upcoming events

Hackathon "Information Technologies for Youth and Community Development", Yerevan (24.12.2024)








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