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Between the Mountains - Updates from the South Caucasus |
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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus
August/September 2024 |
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Dear Friends of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung,
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Upside Down in Azerbaijan
There is a game that we used to play as kids, in German it is called “verkehrte Welt” (something like upside-down or topsy turvy world). The idea is that you say something which is just the opposite of the truth or of what you mean. Like: “Wow, you look happy” (when, indeed you are very sad) or “I don’t like your ugly old T-Shirt.” (when, indeed, you are wearing a fancy new T-Shirt).
The outcomes of the snap parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan on 01 September were conducted and resulted in an upside-down reality, typical for Azerbaijan under Aliyev. When the country’s Public Defender Sabina Aliyeva declares that the elections were held in “a democratic, free, transparent, fair, orderly manner”, they were actually controlled, rigged and accompanied by violence. When Aliyeva further refers to a high activity of the population, the 37 % turn-out actually underlined that the elections were of no interest to the people whatsoever. And, most importantly, when “independent” deputies form the second largest bloc in the newly elected parliament (after the fraction of Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan Party), it means that the National Assembly will again be 100% controlled by the regime.
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Stephan Malerius |
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On September 9, in partnership with LibMod and SCRIPTS, we looked for answers to the question “Georgia: Russian Past or European Future?” in a panel discussion within our "Georgia in Focus" series. The panel at KAS Academy in Berlin delved into Georgia’s upcoming parliamentary elections and their implications for Europe and regional relations. Keynotes from German Ambassador to Georgia Ernst Peter Fischer and LibMod’s Khatia Kikalishvili set the stage. The discussion delivered insights from Georgian MP Ana Natsvlishvili, former Georgian Minister of Foreign Affairs Eka Tkeshelashvili, CDU MP Knut Abraham, and SCRIPTS’s Dr. Julia Langbein. |
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More infos and photos here |
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What happened in the South Caucasus? |
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Armenia to have constitutional referendum in 2027 - Baku continues to demand changes
The Armenian government plans to hold a referendum in 2027 to approve a new constitution, a move partially seen as a response to Azerbaijani demands for resolving alleged territorial claims in the current constitution. Despite ongoing negotiations and and repeated Armenian concessions, the constitutional issue remains a major hurdle in achieving a peace agreement between the two nations.
Pashinyan claims progress in peace talks, but challenges remain Armenia's proposal to sign an interim peace treaty covering only mutually agreed-upon provisions was rejected by Azerbaijan that criticized it as insufficient and a mere delay in resolving key issues. Despite this, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claims significant progress, stating that 80% of the treaty is agreed upon and suggesting that signing the settled sections could help continue discussions on remaining issues. The peace process remains complicated by domestic pressures and geopolitical tensions, with both sides working to address the unresolved obstacles.
Controversies around new Armenian history textbook
In response to criticism from Russia, Armenia’s Education Ministry has revised a controversial history textbook for eighth graders, removing the term "annexation" from a chapter discussing Russia's occupation of Eastern Armenia in the early 19th century. The Russian Foreign Ministry had denounced the chapter as inaccurate and provocative, prompting Armenia to adjust the textbook's language after receiving formal complaints. The controversy underscores ongoing tensions between Yerevan and Moscow. |
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Speakers of German Foreign Relations Committee visit Georgia
On September 4-6, four spokespersons of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag visited Georgia. During the trip, the German MPs met with opposition members and civil society. Georgian government officials declined meetings. The delegation expressed deep concerns over Georgia’s democratic backsliding and its EU aspirations, emphasizing that Georgia's current policies, particularly the "Foreign Agents" law, hinder its EU integration process. Accession negotiations between the EU and Georgia will not be supported by the German parliament until the law is repealed.
Georgian Dream promises to ban all other opposition parties On August 20, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party vowed to seek a constitutional majority in the upcoming elections to implement to implement a ban of all opposition parties, claiming that they belong to a "collective United National Movement", referring to the main opposition party headed by former President Mikhail Saakashvili. GD plans to declare these opposition groups unconstitutional, citing their alleged role in the 2008 war with Russia and other supposed actions against national interests.
Only 476 CSOs register under Foreign Agents Law
As the deadline for registration under the so-called "foreign agents law" expired on September 2, only 476 out of an estimated 30.000 organizations have complied. Citing concerns about governmental overreach reminiscent of Russia’s restrictive policies, the widespread non-compliance highlights fears of increased state control and the potential stifling of independent voices. The Ministry of Justice is now authorized to enforce registration, impose fines, and monitor non-compliant organizations, a process that hasn’t begun yet. |
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Azerbaijani snap parliamentary elections result in expected win for Government In Azerbaijan’s snap parliamentary elections held on September 1, President Ilham Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan Party secured 68 of 125 seats, maintaining its majority despite a low voter turnout of 37.3%. Reports of vote tampering, including multiple votes by individuals, marred the election process. Opposition parties, including Musavat and the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, criticized the elections as undemocratic, citing restricted political competition and violations of electoral procedures.
Azerbaijani research arrested before elections - accusation of high treason
After the arrest of political analyst Bahruz Samadov on August 23 on charges of high treason, which he denies, human rights groups have urged his immediate release. They criticized these actions as an attempt to suppress dissent ahead of parliamentary elections, amid ongoing peace talks with Armenia, and ahead of the country hosting a major UN climate conference. Samadov denies the allegations against him.
Putin visits Baku
During his first visit to Azerbaijan in six years, Vladimir Putin claimed the capital Baku “to be an oasis in the region”. Putin offered to mediate a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but the talks with President Aliyev largely focused on enhancing trade routes crucial for Russia amid Western sanctions. Difficult issues, like the opening of a Russian consulate in Karabakh, were not mentioned. Despite Azerbaijan’s traditionally balanced foreign policy, the growing cooperation with Moscow may indicate a pivot away from the West. |
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Upcoming events |
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Book Presentation "Security Dynamics in the Black Sea Region", Brussels (26.09.2024)
Black Sea SecurityConference, Tbilisi (01.10.2024)
"Crossroads of Peace: Combining Security and Democracy” Conference Yerevan (12.10.2024)
"Re-Locating Identity", Yerevan (10.10.2024)
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This newsletter is a free service of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus 4 Tamar Chovelidze St, Tbilisi
T +995 32 245 91 11
Responsible Florian BInder florian.binder@kas.de |
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If you are unable to click on the link, please return this newsletter to us at info.georgien@kas.de with the subject "unsubscribe". |
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© Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. 2024 |
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