In December, together with the Chavchavadze Centre we presented a study on political parties in Georgia entitled “The Time to Gather Stones: Overcoming Georgia’s Two-Party Divide.” “Time to gather stones” is a biblical saying referring to casting stones out of a field or vineyard (sic!) where they are hurtful and to gather them together to make walls and fences of, or build houses with. Metaphorically, walls and fences are important in the South Caucasus to defend democracy, building a common house might be a vision for the region. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia need to overcome their divides – between them as well as inside themselves. These could be the outlooks for 2024.  

On 8 December, KAS together with its partners Economic Policy Research Center, Open Society Georgia Foundation and Independent Journalists’ House launched a new EU co-funded project called "United for Georgia’s European Way". The project will promote Georgia's rapprochement with the EU in all regions of Georgia over the next 33 months. The launch event was opened by H.E. Peter Fischer, Ambassador of Germany to Georgia, Nicholas Cendrowicz, Head of Cooperation at the EU Delegation to Georgia, and Amb. Archil Karaulashvili, Head of General Directorate for European Integration at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia. 

Armenia and Azerbaijan negotiate bilaterally
On 30 November, the two state commissions on border delimitation met at the border section near Ijevan/Qazax. The delegations agreed to continue meeting and to intensify discussions. One week later, both countries issued a joint statement, pledging "their intention to normalize relations and to reach the peace treaty". As a confidence-building measure, a prisoner exchange was conducted, with Baku releasing 32 Armenian soldiers and Yerevan in turn releasing two Azerbaijani soldiers. 

EU and Armenia deepen partnership 

Head of EU Delegation to Armenia Vassilis Maragos on 5 December signalled the EU's intention to progress on the issue of visa liberalization and stated that "the [...] process is yielding very good results". One week later, High Representative of the EU Josep Borrell announced that the staff of the civilian EU observer mission in Armenia will increase by 50 %, pointing out that "Armenia clearly sees the benefits of increasing cooperation with us, and we are ready to respond positively".
 

EU considers support to Armenian military via European Peace Facility

Following a visit of representatives of the European External Action Service (EEAS) to Armenia on 27-29 November, the EEAS announced that "the EU will [...] explore non-lethal support to the Armenian military via the European Peace Facility". The support could materialize in medical and protective equipment or capacity-building in the field of countering cyberattacks and disinformation. The extent of support depends on the EU member states, who currently discuss the matter. 

European Council grants EU candidate status to Georgia

In the framework of the European Council summit on 14-15 December, President of the European Council Charles Michel announced the decision to grant EU candidate status to Georgia. Representatives of the Georgian government, opposition and civil society welcomed the decision. The congratulating remarks were echoed by representatives of the EU, including President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and EU Ambassador to Georgia Pawel Herczyński. 

Biggest opposition party UNM disintegrates

An eruption of internal turmoil has led to an exodus of party members within the United National Movement (UNM), the main opposition party in Georgia. After former UNM chairman Nika Melia had declared his departure from the party over disagreements with the current leadership, large groups of members appeared to follow Melia and left the party, including leaders of regional offices and elected officials in several regional councils.  

Russian occupation forces detain three Georgian citizens, kill one

The Georgian State Security Service (SSSG) reported on the illegal detention of three Georgian civilians by Russian occupation troops near the Administrative Boundary Line with South Ossetia. While one citizen was later released, the de-facto authorities in South Ossetia announced “criminal cases” against the other two Georgians for “illegal crossing of the state border”. On 9 December, the SSSG further confirmed the murder of a Georgian citizen, Temur Karbaia, by representatives of the de-facto authorities in Russian-occupied Abkhazia. 

President Aliyev announces snap presidential elections

In an unexpected move, President Ilham Aliyev on 7 December signed a decree to hold early presidential elections on 7 February. Aliyev provided no explanation for the decision to cut his term short, which formally would have ended in early 2025. On 12 December, the ruling New Azerbaijan Party officially nominated the incumbent to be their candidate for the upcoming elections.

Government lashes out against US and European institutions
On 15 November US Assistant Secretary of State James O'Brien "condemned" the military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh and announced the suspension of bilateral cooperation formats. Baku called the statements "unacceptable", and a campaign of alleged conspiracy against Azerbaijan was launched against USAID by government officials and affiliated media. Baku's Ministry of Foreign Affairs later summoned the ambassadors of the U.S., France and Germany over alleged involvement of their government agencies in "illegal financial operations" of a critical news outlet.

UN Climate Change Conference 2024 to take place in Baku

Within the recent UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, the proposal to conduct the COP29 summit 2024 in Azerbaijan was approved. Notably, Baku's bid to host the conference was finally supported by Armenia, which framed its approval as a gesture of goodwill. Yerevan originally had interest in hosting COP29 as well.