At least 25 people die after disastrous landslide in Shovi

After days of heavy rainfall, a massive landslide devastated the rural resort town of Shovi in the Racha region in Northern Georgia on 3 August, causing at least 25 deaths, including several children. The town has been almost completely destructed. More than 200 people had to be evacuated. President Zourabichvili expressed condolences to the relatives of the dead and called Georgians to unite amid a "great tragedy". The Georgian Army is involved in the rescue operation, which is still ongoing as eight individuals remain missing in the disaster zone. Meanwhile, discussions about causes and responsibilities for the disaster have started: Critics blame the government for lacks of early warning capabilities and modern rescue helicopters, as well as for declining to seek assistance from Turkey and Azerbaijan to speed up the rescue operation. The government has rejected all of these claims and initiated an investigation concerning the violation of safety regulations during mining, construction or similar works. 

Russian cruise ship forced to leave port of Batumi after protests

The "Astoria Grande", carrying 800 mostly Russian passengers, was forced to leave Georgia's black sea port of Batumi early after arriving from Sochi on 27 July. Local activists had gathered near the dock to protest against Russian tourists on the ship, after several of them told Georgian media that they supported Russia's 2008 war against Georgia and that Russia "liberated" the Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia. On 31 July, upon its return trip from Istanbul, the ship again stopped in Batumi, causing another wave of protests, resulting in a blockade of the exit of passengers and their access to a transfer bus. While many international actors as well as President Zourabichvili lauded the protesters, representatives of the ruling "Georgian Dream" party slammed them for being "boorish". Nine protesters were arrested by the police. On its future trips, the ship will reportedly no longer stop in Batumi. 

Georgian Prime Minister visits China, announces new "strategic partnership"

During a state visit to China, Prime Minister Gharibashvili met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Upon the visit, both governments issued a joint statement on 31 July concerning the establishment of a "strategic partnership". Both sides vowed "to elevate bilateral relations" and create "a completely new level" of cooperation. Gharibashvili also stressed support for the "One China Principle", which among others implies China's sovereignty over Taiwan. While China's interest in Georgia is visible since many years and relates to Georgia's transit role in the "Middle Corridor" connecting China with Europe, the statements caused irritation among Georgia's Western partners and government critics, because of a possible shift in Georgia's foreign policy orientation. For the past two decades, Georgia mainly referred to Western countries as its "strategic partners".

Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh face humanitarian catastrophe

As Azerbaijan continues to fully block the Lachin corridor, the only supply road connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh, the humanitarian situation of the Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh has worsened to precarious levels. High-ranking officials from the US and the EU have called on Azerbaijan to re-open the Lachin corridor for humanitarian convoys from Armenia. On 7 August, the UN echoed the deep concerns about the looming humanitarian crisis caused by the Azerbaijani blockade: "By lifting the blockade, the [Azerbaijani] authorities can alleviate the suffering of thousands of people in Nagorno-Karabakh and allow for the unimpeded flow of humanitarian assistance to the civilian population". After an official inquiry from the Armenian government, the UN Security Council confirmed that it will hold an emergency meeting regarding the blockade of humanitarian goods to Nagorno-Karabakh on 16 August.  

Civil legislative initiative adds domestic pressure on Pashinyan

A new petition called “Hayaqve” (“Vote of Armenians”), which was initiated by opposition activists in late June, surpassed the quorum of 50.000 signatures from Armenian citizens, thus forcing the National Assembly to vote on a new draft law. The draft law envisages the introduction of severe criminal punishments for public officials who recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan or deny the Armenian Genocide. While the latter does not appear too controversial, the former aims at preventing and outlawing any political step towards accepting Azerbaijani rule over Nagorno-Karabakh and its Armenian population. This openly contradicts the position of Pashinyan’s government, which recently declared its readiness to recognize Azerbaijan’s full territorial integrity, including Nagorno-Karabakh. Given that the governing party “Civil Contract” holds a majority in the National Assembly, it is unlikely that the draft law will pass. However, the initiative’s success adds pressure on Pashinyan, who recently faced growing domestic criticism and declining approval ratings over the unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan and the deteriorating situation for Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Internationally mediated talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue
Amid the dire humanitarian situation of Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, international efforts to support the finalization of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan continued. On 15 July, the sixth trilateral meeting of Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Aliyev and President of the European Council Michel took place in Brussels. According to Michel, the main topics of discussion concerned "sovereignty and territorial integrity", "border delimitation", "connectivity", "humanitarian supplies", "rights and security" and "detainees". Most notably, Michel "noted" Azerbaijan’s willingness to provide humanitarian supplies to Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh via Aghdam, which both Armenia and the Armenian de-facto authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh oppose as long as Azerbaijan blocks the Lachin corridor. Ten days later, the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Moscow, facilitated by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. The meeting appeared to not have yielded any results, however Lavrov afterwards stated for the first time that the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh need to accept Azerbaijani rule. 

Baku criticizes Moscow, welcomes Brussels' efforts

In a statement on 17 July, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry accused Russia of doing nothing to stop Armenia from sending military supplies to Yerevan-backed forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, therefore not ensuring the implementation of the 2020 ceasefire agreement. This statement came just days after the latest edition of the series of EU-mediated talks between President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan in Brussels, which Baku openly welcomed. Already before, Azerbaijan had not been hiding its dissatisfaction with the presence of Russian troops on its soil in Nagorno-Karabakh. Subsequently, Russia started adopting a more Azerbaijani-friendly stance: Apart from announcing that the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh should accept Azerbaijani rule, Russia – alongside the official Azerbaijani position – does not support the idea of an international mechanism for ensuring the rights and security of the Karabakh-Armenians, as the EU and US do. 

Economist and prominent opposition politician Gubad Ibadoglu was arrested on 23 July, after police claimed they found forged bills worth 40.000 USD in his apartment. State-connected media outlets also implied that Ibadoglu belongs to the Fethullah Gulen network designated as a terrorist organization in Turkey. As the chairman of the "Azerbaijan Democracy and Welfare Party", Ibadoglu is an outspoken critic of the government. He and and his lawyer deny the charge and claim the arrest to be politically motivated. His detention comes two weeks after Ibadoglu announced the creation of a fund dedicated to Azerbaijani students to study abroad, which according to him would reclaim "money stolen from the Azerbaijani people and economy by the Azerbaijani government" and would cooperate with US, UK and EU authorities. Irada Bayramova, Ibadoglu's wife who was initially arrested with him and has since been released, declared that both of them have been subjected to psychological and physical violence while in custody. If convicted, Ibadoglu may face up 12 years in prison. 

Crackdown on opposition parties intensifies as new law kicks in

Three prominent Azerbaijani opposition parties, "Republican Alternative", "Popular Front" and "Musavat", were all denied re-registration by the Ministry of Justice in July. All parties were obliged to re-register based on requirements of a new law on political parties, which entered into force in January despite criticism from domestic and international experts. According to the law, each party must present a minimum of 5.000 members on a list to the Ministry of Justice, including personal identification data of each member. None of the three parties reached this mark after the Ministry deemed thousands of entries on their submitted lists "incorrect" or "invalid". Representatives of the parties claim that they were ordered to submit a corrected list or find enough members within one month, otherwise their party would be disbanded and prohibited from operating.