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Between the Mountains - Updates from the South Caucasus

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus

May / June 2023


Dear Friends of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung,
 
“Do we choose north, west or east?” To Mikheil Javakhishvili, one of Georgia’s leading writers in the beginning of 20th century, the answer was simple: “We ought to turn the same direction that the country is rolling, and it goes barreling toward the west.” Controversies over the geopolitical orientation of Georgia dominated the discourse in early summer. At the same time a five-party meeting of Prime Minister Pashinyan, President Macron, Chancellor Scholz, President Michel and President Aliyev in Chisinau, where the parties discussed border demarcation, border security and the unblocking of regional transport and economic infrastructures, marked another milestone on the thorny path to signing a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 
 

Stephan Malerius





 

30 Years German-Armenian Diplomatic Relations


On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of German-Armenian diplomatic relations, the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the German-Armenian Forum initiated the publication of a book summarizing the results of 30 years of cooperation between the Republic of Armenia and the Federal Republic of Germany in the fields of economics, politics, diplomacy, law, culture and education. On May 12 and 13, the book was presented during an event attended by numerous high-ranking guests.


Read More




 
What happened in the South Caucasus?
 
Georgia

International criticism on the resumption of direct flights between Russia and Georgia

The launch of visa-free travel for Georgians to Russia and direct flights between Russia and Georgia is continuing driving a lot of anger against the Georgian government, which is accused of bucking the international trend of isolating Moscow. The arrival of the first direct flight from Moscow to Tbilisi on May 19 was met at the airport by a crowd of protesters, who accused the ruling Georgian Dream party of selling out to the Kremlin and squandering Georgia's European future. 
On May 29, the EU Ambassador to Georgia, Paweł Herczyński, delivered a diplomatic demarche: “We have conveyed that we regret the decision of the Georgian government to accept direct flights with Russia, we have conveyed that this decision goes against the decisions of 27 member states not to have flights to and from Russia and not to allow overflight of Russian airplanes on the territory of EU member states”.

 

Georgian president addresses the EU parliament 

On May 31 Georgian president Salome Zourabchvili addressed the EU parliament as the first Georgian head of state in 13 years. The question of being granted the EU membership candidate status later this year stood in the center of her speech that she delivered in French: "Not only is our European choice legitimate, there is no alternative to it because it is based on our values, our history, our struggles, our determination, and our vision for the future," the president said. Zourabichvili also reiterated her firm solidarity with Ukraine. Her address follows yet another series of controversies in the relations between Tbilisi and Brussels. On the eve of her speech Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili told the Bratislava GLOBSEC Forum that NATO enlargement and Ukraine’s desire to join the alliance were among the reasons for Russia’s invasion.


Crackdown on peaceful protest on the rise
Rallies were held in Tbilisi over the weekend of June 3-4 to protest against arbitrary police conduct in various episodes during the previous week, which many see as Kremlin-style moves. The rallies referred to the detention of peaceful protesters for holding banners and preventing a demonstrator from setting up a protest tent. On June 3, several people were also detained in Batumi, where activists gathered in solidarity with protesters in Tbilisi.
"It is concerning that the Georgian public is witnessing such a negative trend undermining the fundamental principles of democracy and practically annulling the basic right to freedom of expression," 20 Georgian human rights watchdogs said in a joint statement on June 3.



 
Armenia

EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia expands

The head of the EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia, Markus Ritter, revealed plans to establish three additional operational centers in Kapan, Ijevan, and Yeghegnadzor to monitor the border with Azerbaijan. Ritter highlighted that over 300 patrols covering a total distance of 3,800 kilometers have been conducted by civilian observers since the mission started on 20 February. Citing Armenian officials, Ritter underlined that the mission has so far “contributed to a certain stabilization. However, in general, the situation is still unstable”.
 

Amid increased Western mediation efforts, Aliyev and Pashinyan publicly display tensions at Kremlin meeting 
The leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia openly argued at a meeting hosted by Russian President Putin on 25 May. In his remarks, Pashinyan criticized the ongoing Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev intervened, stating that "Azerbaijan did not block any corridor” and “there is no need to use this platform for unfounded accusations". Both leaders continued arguing, before Putin shut down the conversation, claiming the topic to be too sensitive. The heated exchange in Moscow comes amid deepened Western efforts in advancing the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process in the recent weeks, indicated by high-ranking officials of both countries coming together in meetings hosted in Washington, Brussels and Chișinău. 


Armenia accused of assisting Russia with sanctions circumvention
According to a media report by POLITICO, Russia has managed to bypass Western sanctions and return its microchip and electronics imports for military purposes to pre-war levels. Jim O'Brien, the U.S. State Department's sanctions coordinator, highlighted the issue, noting that European companies are selling these materials to companies in other countries, which then resell them to Russia. O'Brien identified five countries that pose challenges in terms of this circumvention mechanism, including Armenia. In a swift response to the allegations, the Armenian government imposed stricter export rules for relevant goods.



 
Azerbaijan


Azerbaijani president threatens Nagorno-Karabakh de-facto authorities, refuses to replicate Armenian concessions
President Aliyev issued a threat to the de-facto authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh, implying that military action may be an option to end their administration. Speaking in Lachin, a town which returned under Azerbaijani control in 2022, Aliyev stated on 28 May that the "book is closed" for the Ethnic-Armenian de-facto authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh: “Everyone knows perfectly well that we have all the opportunities to carry out any operation in that region today. […] The 'parliament' should be dissolved, the element calling himself 'president' should surrender, all 'ministers,' 'deputies' and others should give up their positions. Only in that case can a concession be made to them". In the meantime, in a major concession, Armenia officially confirmed its readiness to accede to Baku’s main demand of recognizing full Azerbaijani sovereignty over the disputed region.


Six months into blockade, Nagorno-Karabakh faces energy crisis as key reservoir dries up

The Sarsang Reservoir, situated in Nagorno-Karabakh, is currently facing a critical situation with rapidly declining water levels. If the reservoir continues to decrease, the area may be confronted with severe electricity shortages and an impending environmental disaster. Since early January, the region has heavily relied on the reservoir for electricity generation due to damaged cables from Armenia, which couldn't be repaired due to Azerbaijan's blockade of the Lachin corridor. The water scarcity issue is expected to worsen as temperatures rise and precipitation decreases during the summer, posing significant challenges for local Ethnic-Armenian de-facto authorities in fulfilling their agreement to supply Sarsang water to neighboring Azerbaijani-controlled regions for agricultural purposes.

Azerbaijan-Iran relations deteriorating
For the second time, Baku has issued a travel warning to its citizens regarding Iran. The historically strained relationship between both countries has recently taken another downturn amid a deadly attack on Azerbaijan’s Embassy in Tehran in January, which Baku blamed on the "unstable situation" in Iran, as well as Azerbaijan's deepening ties with Iran’s arch-enemy Israel, illustrated by the opening of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv in March and the first official visit of Israeli President Herzog to Baku in May. This added heat to existing disagreements over the so-called “Zangezur Corridor”, a land connection through Armenian territory demanded by Baku to connect with its exclave Nakhchivan, potentially cutting off Iran’s border with Armenia, and mutual suspicions of invasive intentions via religious or ethnic leverage.





Upcoming Events

Study visit to Brussels with the best participants of last years' edition of KAS Democracy Lab
Presentation of the book "30 Years of German-Armenian Diplomatic Relations" in the Bundestag 
Political Dialogue: "Yerevan elections: Where is the balance between the political and the urban?"








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